Colder low-pressure systems may bring intense downpours across the country, while meteorologists track a strong El Niño pattern.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The United Arab Emirates may see successive waves of heavy rain across the first half of November, with colder weather systems expected to trigger more widespread and intense downpours during the month’s second week.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society and member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, stated that unsettled weather will likely persist in waves until mid-November. Cold, winter-like low-pressure systems are projected to track across the Arabian Peninsula, potentially intensifying into broader storm systems by the second week.
Al Jarwan cautioned that meteorological accuracy declines over longer horizons. Short-range forecasts covering 48 hours maintain over 90 percent accuracy, offering concrete data on low-pressure timing, rainfall volume, and localized showers. Medium-range models covering three to eight days—including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecast System (GFS)—yield 60 to 80 percent accuracy, frequently agreeing on atmospheric developments while diverging on track, timing, and intensity. Predictions stretching nine to 15 days drop below 50 percent reliability and serve primarily as general trend indicators.
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) reported a 96 percent probability of El Niño conditions continuing from November 2026 through March 2027, with residual effects possibly lingering into April. UAE temperatures and precipitation are projected to run near or above seasonal baselines over this timeframe.
The NCM clarified that the 96 percent figure reflects the likelihood of the climate pattern persisting, rather than a guarantee of heavy rainfall in the UAE. The intensity of an El Niño cycle alone cannot dictate exact rainfall amounts or storm severity.
World Meteorological Organisation projections indicate sea surface temperatures in the Pacific El Niño monitoring zone could climb roughly 3.8 degrees Celsius above baseline between November 2026 and January 2027, pointing toward an exceptionally strong event.
El Niño forms every two to seven years as central and eastern Pacific waters warm, shifting global wind patterns, pressure dynamics, and precipitation belts. Across the Arabian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, the phenomenon indirectly shifts prevailing winds and low-pressure tracks. Because local downpours require favorable atmospheric moisture, specific wind shear, and localized system alignment, forecasters emphasize that short-range tracking remains critical to assess approaching storm systems.
